Greetings folks,

The United States holds 8,133 tonnes of gold. At this week’s price of roughly $4,750 per ounce, that stash is worth approximately $1.24 trillion. The US government carries it on the Federal Reserve’s books at $42.22 per ounce, which values the entire reserve at about $11 billion. That’s a mark-to-market gain of roughly 110 times book value. For context, the last time the statutory gold price was updated was 1973, which means the US government has been using the same valuation for its largest hard asset longer than most of its employees have been alive.

If you recall from last week, France quietly sold 129 tonnes of its gold held at the New York Fed, bought it back in Europe, and pocketed €13 billion in profit. They now have zero gold left on American soil. Central banks globally are hoarding the stuff at rates not seen since the 1960s, and the US is sitting on the mother lode, priced like it’s a clearance item. Speaking of things that are worth considerably more than the books suggest, let’s talk about a 280-year-old auction house that can’t pay money they have already collected.

Sotheby’s introduced something called an “extended settlement terms payments option” in mid-2025, which is a fancy way of saying we can’t afford to give you the money we collected for you. According to the FT, one seller of more than $30 million worth of property was offered 8% if they allowed Sotheby’s to hold their funds for at least six months. The standard terms say sellers get paid 45 days after a sale. One art adviser reported their client waited eight months. Sotheby’s described this as offering clients “greater optionality and financial flexibility,” which is the kind of language you usually hear right before someone asks you to read the fine print. For reference, Christie’s pays out in 35 days.

The root cause is Patrick Drahi. The Franco-Israeli billionaire bought Sotheby’s in 2019 for $2.7 billion via a leveraged buyout, issuing $1.1 billion in new debt and assuming roughly $1 billion in existing obligations. The company’s total debt has since nearly doubled to $1.8 billion. Its debt-to-EBITDA ratio hit 10x by mid-2024, which is the kind of leverage you normally associate with a company that’s about to have a very uncomfortable conversation with its creditors. S&P downgraded Sotheby’s to B-minus (deep junk) in June 2024, and Moody’s had already dropped it to B3. In November 2025, S&P warned it could lower the rating further if the company is “unable to address its upcoming debt maturities in a timely fashion.” The pre-tax loss more than doubled to $248 million in 2024. Despite this, Drahi paid $90 million in dividends in 2023. Moody’s explicitly cited that decision in its downgrade.

The maturity wall is the part that should concern anyone with money in the system. Sotheby’s has a $700 million art-backed security (the ArtFi Master Trust) due in March 2027, backed by loans collateralised against works by Rembrandt and Warhol. Six months later, $600 million in senior secured bonds at 7.375% mature in October 2027. That’s $1.3 billion coming due in a seven-month window. The bonds were trading at 86.50 cents on the dollar as of November 2024, and Macroaxis flagged a 34% probability of financial distress. Abu Dhabi’s ADQ injected $1 billion in late 2024, but $700 million of that went straight to existing creditors. The question is whether there’s another lifeline when the 2027 wall hits.

Drahi’s track record at Altice is instresting. His telecom empire carries roughly $60 billion in total debt across multiple entities. At Altice France, he forced a restructuring in February 2025 where senior secured lenders got 7.5 cents on the dollar plus equity, unsecured creditors got 2.5 cents, and Drahi kept 55% control. He’s now attempting similar manoeuvres at Altice International and Altice USA, where Apollo, Ares, BlackRock, and Oaktree formed a creditor coalition in July 2024 to prevent him from pitting lender groups against each other. Drahi countersued. Bloomberg described his approach as “striking back with moves bashing Altice lenders.” If he applies the same playbook to Sotheby’s, bondholders could take a haircut and he keeps the keys.

The seller exposure is the part nobody is talking about. Sotheby’s is not a regulated financial institution. Unlike banks or broker-dealers, auction houses are not required to segregate client money in trust accounts. The $1 billion in “client payables” likely sits in general operating accounts, commingled with corporate funds. In a bankruptcy scenario, sellers would likely rank as unsecured creditors, below the $600 million in secured bondholders. The 7-8% interest scheme is effectively asking sellers to become voluntary unsecured lenders to a junk-rated company. They’re being paid roughly the same yield as Sotheby’s own bonds, without the legal protections. If you’re consigning a $10 million painting, you might want to read the settlement terms very carefully.

Then there’s the NFT graveyard. In March 2021, Christie’s sold Beeple’s jpeg “Everydays: The First 5000 Days” for $69.3 million. NFT art trading volume peaked at $2.9 billion that year. Sotheby’s launched its Metaverse platform, Christie’s opened a digital art department. By Q1 2025, trading volume had crashed 93% to $23.8 million. Christie’s closed its digital art department in September 2025. Sotheby’s laid off most of its Metaverse team, keeping three people. Nifty Gateway (owned by the Winklevoss twins) shut down in January 2026. The buyer who paid $69 million for the Beeple (Vignesh Sundaresan) now runs a physical gallery in Singapore where visitors “don’t even know this is an NFT.” The entire Web3 art revolution lasted about as long as a gallery exhibition. To be fair, if you have something expensive enough to sell at Sotheby’s you probably don’t need the money.

Sentiment

The FT piece triggered immediate concern among consignors and advisers. Puck’s Marion Maneker noted that at least one consignor withdrew property after the WSJ’s earlier reporting on Sotheby’s finances. Reddit’s r/investing and Seeking Alpha threads are focused on the Altice contagion risk and the 2027 maturity wall. LinkedIn’s art market professionals are split between those who see the ADQ injection as sufficient and those who view it as a temporary bandage. The dominant mood online: a 280-year-old brand is not the same thing as a 280-year guarantee.

In the spring of 2020, Dr. Avindra Nath at the NIH was investigating unexplained deaths in New York City. The victims had stopped breathing and died at home with no lung or heart damage. When his team examined the brains using high-resolution MRI and microscopes, they found that tissue in brain stem regions controlling breathing had lost neurons. SARS-CoV-2 was in the lung tissue, but the damage was in the brain. Recovering patients later described episodes where breathing no longer felt automatic, going long stretches without inhaling unless they consciously willed it. Nath had seen the pattern before with HIV, Ebola, and SARS-CoV-1: infections that first appear to target one organ system before revealing quieter, lasting damage elsewhere.

The scale of what followed is now measurable. An estimated 400 million people worldwide are living with long-term COVID consequences, and a November analysis put the annual economic toll at $1 trillion, roughly 1% of global GDP. A Euronews report from this month estimated costs of up to €115 billion annually across OECD countries over the next decade. The UK Biobank found subtle brain loss in planning and memory regions even in mild cases. A deliberately-controlled UK human challenge study infected healthy young adults with no prior immunity, most developed only mild illness, but after one year they performed roughly 6 IQ points worse on memory and decision-making tests. Population studies suggest cognitive symptoms are among the slowest to resolve, with full recovery elusive for a significant minority even years later.

The dementia link is the long-term concern. People who contracted COVID face a statistically higher risk of cognitive impairment and dementia-level decline compared with matched controls. A January 2026 study found that essential workers who donated blood before and after COVID showed a clear rise in phosphorylated tau, a protein used as an early warning sign of brain degeneration, particularly when symptoms lasted more than a year. A separate NYU Langone study found enlarged brain structures with impaired blood flow that tracked with Alzheimer’s markers. A Korean study published in Nature Communications replicated these findings: thinner brain regions, unusual iron buildup, and ongoing cellular stress, all in people who were never hospitalised. Nath is direct about where he thinks this is heading: "The incidence and prevalence of Alzheimer’s is going to just escalate. It’s a huge public-health problem."

Nath is now leading an NIH clinical trial treating long COVID as an immune-driven neurological condition, testing whether immunomodulating therapies can quiet lingering inflammation and help the brain recover. The trial is slated to conclude later this year. Timothy Henrich at UCSF is more cautious, noting that the risk of lasting effects appears to have fallen with vaccination, but he stresses the danger has not vanished. The brain compensates, Nath says. It reroutes, recruits backup circuits. The trouble comes later, when reserves are depleted. I’ve had COVID at least 3 times, so if its 6 points every time, then that’s at least 50 points right (please check my math).

Sentiment

Reddit’s r/collapse and r/science have been tracking COVID brain research closely, with the 6 IQ point finding generating significant discussion. Hacker News threads on the economic cost studies are sober and data-focused. Seeking Alpha has flagged the long-term implications for healthcare stocks and disability insurance. LinkedIn’s public health community sees this as the pandemic’s slow-moving second act. The dominant mood: this is the story nobody wants to read but everyone should.

On Friday, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said the Strait of Hormuz would be “completely open” for the remainder of a fragile two-week ceasefire. Trump declared the strait “ready for business and full passage.” Brent dropped more than 11% to about $88 a barrel, the lowest in five weeks. European gas prices fell 10%. The S&P 500 rose 1.2%, on track for a weekly gain of nearly 5%. Ship tracking satellites showed at least 15 vessels heading for the strait, including the Greek-owned tanker Stemnitsa and three CMA CGM container ships. Seven weeks of closure had pushed Brent above $100 and triggered rolling disruptions to global energy supply chains. The reopening, such as it is, comes with a catch: Iran still insists vessels require IRGC permission before transiting. That is not exactly what most shipping executives would describe as “open.”

The negotiations behind the reopening are messy. Pakistan brokered a two-week ceasefire on April 8 following 40 days of US-Israeli strikes on Iran that began February 28. Both sides arrived in Islamabad last weekend with competing blueprints. The US 15-point plan demands Iran hand over its 440kg stockpile of enriched uranium, stop enriching domestically, accept full IAEA monitoring, limit ballistic missiles, end support for Hezbollah and the Houthis, reopen the strait, and acknowledge Israel’s right to exist. In exchange: sanctions relief and unfreezing of overseas oil money. Iran’s 10-point counterproposal asks for non-aggression commitments, war damage compensation, retained IRGC control over Hormuz transit, and acceptance of its right to enrich uranium. Trump called Iran’s plan “a workable basis on which to negotiate.” Iran called the US demands “largely excessive, unrealistic and unreasonable.” The Persian and English versions of Iran’s own plan don’t even match on the enrichment question. So everyone seems to be on the same page right?

VP Vance flew to Islamabad on April 11 with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Iran sent foreign minister Araghchi and parliament speaker Qalibaf. On April 12, Vance left with no agreement. “The ball is in Iran’s court,” he said. The ceasefire expires Tuesday April 21. Pakistan’s military chief Asim Munir spent at least two days in Tehran this week trying to extend it. Trump said Friday that “most of the points are already negotiated” but diplomats cautioned that no new talks are scheduled. The sticking points remain: uranium enrichment, the rebuilding of Natanz and Fordow (both bombed last June), whether Iran hands over “nuclear dust” buried in the rubble, and who controls the strait. Trump’s naval blockade on Iranian ports remains in place. The 11% oil drop is priced on hope, not agreement. If Tuesday comes and goes without an extension, Brent is heading right back up. Volatility traders, lets go.

Sentiment:

War on the Rocks and the Atlantic Council have published detailed analyses of the negotiation dynamics. Reddit’s r/worldnews and r/geopolitics are deeply sceptical that the ceasefire holds. Seeking Alpha is recommending hedged energy positions through Tuesday. Stocktwits is split between bears banking on deal failure and bulls arguing the worst is priced in. The dominant mood across platforms: relief, but nobody is unpacking their bags.

More than 12 million people work in the US restaurant and bar industry. According to labour analytics firm Lightcast, dishwashers were among the most-sought positions last year. The average pay is $32,500 a year, ranking in the bottom third of restaurant jobs. Replacing an hourly restaurant worker now costs $2,700, up from $2,300 in 2024 according to Black Box Intelligence. 54% of sit-down restaurants surveyed by the National Restaurant Association said they had fewer-than-average applicants for kitchen-support roles last year. At Chicago’s John’s Food and Wine, where a red snapper goes for $52 and a steak for $83, dishwashers averaged $70,000 a year thanks to a 20% service fee split among hourly staff. Rick Cardenas, CEO of Olive Garden parent Darden Restaurants, said dishwashers are his top employment concern. The person who scrubs the plates is now harder to find than the person who cooks the food on them.

The Trump administration’s immigration enforcement is compounding the problem. Foreign-born workers make up about 20% of restaurant jobs, 34% of construction workers nationally (exceeding 60% in trades like drywall and roofing), and roughly 70% of the farm workforce. The Associated General Contractors found that 28% of construction firms experienced workforce disruptions from ICE activity in the past six months. Agricultural employment dropped 155,000 workers between March and July 2025. The “chilling effect” goes beyond deportations: The Fulcrum reported a 1.4 million drop in the immigrant workforce from enforcement and fear combined. Restaurant food costs climbed 3% between December 2024 and September 2025. Hotel room costs rose 2.6% in the same period. The National Restaurant Association’s president has been lobbying Congress for a new visa programme for lower-skilled workers, appealing to lawmakers’ own restaurant-industry histories. Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s first job was as a busser at a South Dakota restaurant.

The automation response is already underway. Sushi chain Kura Sushi is importing robotic dishwashers from Japan at roughly $15,000 each and plans to retrofit about 50 restaurants by the end of fiscal 2026. Their Q2 earnings showed total sales grew $33 million, labour costs decreased 0.3%, and they’re projecting an incremental 50 basis point labour benefit from dish robots in fiscal 2027. A Bank of America report predicted people will own more humanoid robots than cars by 2060. The UBS Global Entrepreneur Report found that 47% of industrial business leaders see automation and robotics as their biggest commercial opportunity. The dishwasher shortage might be the fastest accelerant for restaurant automation since the pandemic forced everyone to download a QR code menu. Fun fact my first job as a dishwasher at Swiss Chalet, also can’t stand QR codes.

Sentiment

The WSJ piece generated discussion on Reddit’s r/economics and r/immigration about the gap between enforcement rhetoric and labour market reality. Hacker News threads are focused on the automation angle, with several commenters noting Kura Sushi’s earnings as proof of concept. LinkedIn’s restaurant-industry professionals describe the situation as a slow-motion crisis with no policy solution in sight. X/Twitter is predictably divided along political lines. The dominant mood: everyone agrees the kitchen can’t function without dishwashers, nobody agrees on where to find them.

Japan should be the worst possible market for Costco. The houses are small, the fridges are smaller, the pantries barely exist, and 125 million people are squeezed into an area smaller than California. Public transport is the default, which makes carrying a 30-pack of toilet paper home from the suburbs a logistical challenge. The domestic retail market is hyper-competitive, dominated by 7-Eleven, Aeon, and Ito-Yokado. Every major Western retailer that tried to crack Japan either failed or limped home. Carrefour entered in 2000 and left in 2004, with its CEO describing the experience as “a short, expensive adventure.” Tesco spent more than £250 million over eight years and admitted defeat in 2011. Walmart bought into Seiyu, struggled for two decades, and eventually sold its majority stake. A Credit Suisse analyst summed it up: “Whether it’s Tesco or Walmart, ultimately they failed to set themselves apart from highly competitive Japanese retailers.”

Costco entered Japan in 1999 by partnering with a local land developer called Torius to navigate strict land-use regulations. The key decision was simple: they didn’t try to be Japanese. They kept the American warehouse experience intact, big portions, English signage, bulk everything, and sold it as an event rather than a grocery run. It worked. When Costco opened in Okinawa in August 2024, the queue was five hours long. The company now has 37 stores and roughly 6 million members in Japan, making it the second-most popular Costco app globally with over 618,000 monthly shoppers. Costco founder Jim Sinegal once said the top-selling product in Japan is Downy Fabric Softener. He couldn’t figure out why until staff watched Japanese customers open the bottle, take a sniff, and say: “This smells like America.”

The most interesting adaptation is one Costco didn’t plan. Japanese customers started splitting bulk purchases between three or four families to fit the quantities into their kitchens. That behaviour spawned an entire cottage industry of reseller mini-shops that buy Costco products and repackage them into Japanese-sized portions. Ferrero Rocher sold individually. Oatmeal measured into smaller bags. Toilet paper in 6-roll packs instead of 30. These resellers are popping up in standalone buildings and inside local supermarkets, particularly serving seniors who physically can’t navigate the warehouse. Costco doesn’t get a direct cut of the resale, but the ecosystem drives memberships. The “share-buying” culture means more cards, more foot traffic, and more people who walk in planning to split a bulk purchase and walk out with their own membership because the experience was too good to resist. I have a slogan for Costco: Come for the $1.50 hotdogs and free samples, leave with regret.

Sentiment

Reddit’s r/japan and r/costco regularly discuss the Costco Japan phenomenon, with particular fascination around the reseller ecosystem and the share-buying culture. Seeking Alpha notes that international expansion, particularly in Japan and China, is the key growth driver at current valuations. LinkedIn’s retail analysts point to Costco as the only Western retailer to truly crack Japan at scale alongside Amazon. The Downy anecdote has gone viral multiple times. The dominant mood: reluctant admiration for a company that sold America by the pallet to a country that politely rejected everyone else.

On Monday, President Trump had McDonald’s delivered to the Oval Office via DoorDash. The delivery driver was Sharon Simmons from Arkansas, a grandmother of 10 who goes by “DoorDash Grandma,” has completed 14,000 deliveries, and says the No Tax on Tips policy saved her $11,000 last year while her husband battles cancer. What started as a staged photo-op turned into a full press conference where Trump, standing next to Simmons holding two bags of cheeseburgers, fielded questions about the Strait of Hormuz blockade, Pope Leo XIV, and an AI-generated image he posted on Truth Social that appeared to depict himself as Jesus Christ. Trump’s explanation: “It was me as a doctor. Had to do with Red Cross.” When he pivoted to ask Simmons her thoughts on banning men from women’s sports, she replied: “I really don’t have an opinion on that. I’m here about tax on tips.” Sharon Simmons has completed 14,000 deliveries. She dodged that question like a true politician.

“The history of all hitherto existing society is the history of class struggles.” That’s Karl Marx, but given this week’s lineup, where a 280-year-old auction house can’t pay its sellers, a virus is quietly degrading brains, and the most in-demand restaurant worker makes $32,500, it felt appropriate.

Have a fantastic weekend. I welcome feedback and please forward this if you see fit.

Many thanks,

Sam.

Market Snapshot

Companies Mentioned in This Edition

Sources

Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, The Economist, Al Jazeera, CNN, CNBC, TIME, ABC News, CBS News, Euronews, Newsweek, The Hill, The National, Washington Examiner, Puck, ARTnews, Artnet, Art Newspaper, DappRadar, Center for Art Law, Nature Communications, BBC Science Focus, Yahoo Finance, Macroaxis, InvestmentNews, Reuters, Moneywise, Japan Today, Capital One Shopping, Nasdaq, Unseen Japan, WARC, Lightcast, Black Box Intelligence, National Restaurant Association, Associated General Contractors, National Immigration Forum, The Fulcrum, American Enterprise Institute, American Immigration Council, PitchBook, PwC, S&P Global Ratings, Moody’s Investors Service, Morningstar DBRS, Stateline, Wikipedia.

Stock data pulled Friday April 17, 2026 at noon PT. Currency at Friday spot rates. 1 USD = 1.3688 CAD.